John Galt astounds industry with results from M3 forecasting competition

In December 1998, John Galt’s ForecastX competed with established Business Forecasting Software Companies. The competition included Quarterly, Annually and Monthly time intervals and included data samples from Microeconomic, Industry, Macro, Finance and Demographic categories.

John Galt's ForecastX software crushed the competition in four of the six data categories at the 1998 M3 Competition in its first year of competition. With its enhanced expert selection John Galt narrowly missed winning in the monthly category by .001%. At John Galt we are not satisfied with the status quo. Since the M3 we have worked tirelessly to enhance our product. We were good then, we are great now.

With the enhancements we have made to our product we are now the undisputed leader of the industry

QUARTERLY DATA MAPE (MEAN ABSOLUTE PERCENT ERROR)

Forecasting Horizons

Average of Forecasting Horizons

Software Package	1	2	3	4	5	6	8	12	15	18	1 to 4	1 to 6	1 to 8	1 to 12	1 to 15	1 to 18	n(max)
ForecastX	4.8	6.7	7.6	9.1	9.8	11.3	13.3	0	0	0	7.04	8.22	9.38	9.38	9.38	9.38	756
Forecast Pro 3	4.9	6.8	7.9	9.6	10.5	11.9	13.9	0	0	0	7.28	8.57	9.77	9.77	9.77	9.77	756
SmartForecasts	5.9	7.7	8.6	10	10.7	12.2	13.5	0	0	0	8.02	9.16	10.15	10.15	10.15	10.15	756

YEARLY DATA MAPE (MEAN ABSOLUTE PERCENTAGE ERROR)

Forecasting Horizons

Average of Forecasting Horizons

Software Package	1	2	3	4	5	6	8	12	15	18	1 to 4	1 to 6	1 to 8	1 to 12	1 to 15	1 to 18	n(max)
ForecastX	8.5	12.4	16.1	18.2	21	22.7	0	0	0	0	13.8	16.48	16.48	16.48	16.48	16.48	645
Forecast Pro 3	8.3	12.2	16.8	19.3	22.5	24.1	0	0	0	0	14.5	17.14	17.14	17.14	17.14	17.14	645
SmartForecasts	9.5	13	17.5	19.9	22.1	24.1	0	0	0	0	14.95	17.68	17.68	17.68	17.68	17.68	645

Monthly Data Set 1 MAPE (MEAN ABSOLUTE PERCENTAGE ERROR)

Forecasting Horizons

Average of Forecasting Horizons

Software Package	1	2	3	4	5	6	8	12	15	18	1 to 4	1 to 6	1 to 8	1 to 12	1 to 15	1 to 18	n(max)
ForecastX	11.6	11.2	12.6	14	12.4	12.2	12.8	13.9	17.8	18.7	12.32	12.31	12.46	12.83	13.60	14.45	1428
Forecast Pro 3	11.5	10.7	11.7	12.9	11.8	12.3	12.6	13.2	16.4	18.3	11.72	11.82	12.06	12.46	13.09	13.86	1428
SmartForecasts	11.6	11.2	12.2	13.6	13.1	13.7	13.5	14.9	18	19.4	12.16	12.58	12.9	13.51	14.22	15.03	1428

Monthly Data Set 2 MAPE (MEAN ABSOLUTE PERCENTAGE ERROR)

Forecasting Horizons

Average of Forecasting Horizons

Software Package	1	2	3	4	5	6	8	12	15	18	1 to 4	1 to 6	1 to 8	1 to 12	1 to 15	1 to 18	n(max)
ForecastX	9.6	11.1	13.2	15.1	15.1	15.4	13.8	16.5	21.2	22	12.25	13.24	13.29	13.77	14.51	15.34	2141
Forecast Pro 3	9.6	10.8	13	14.9	15.3	15.9	14.1	15.6	19.5	21.7	12.05	13.25	13.34	13.78	14.37	15.09	2141
SmartForecasts	10	11.2	13.5	15.4	15.9	16.6	14.3	17.3	21.5	22.5	12.51	13.74	13.82	14.42	15.09	15.87	2141

Seasonal Data MAPE (MEAN ABSOLUTE PERCENTAGE ERROR)

Forecasting Horizons

Average of Forecasting Horizons

Software Package	1	2	3	4	5	6	8	12	15	18	1 to 4	1 to 6	1 to 8	1 to 12	1 to 15	1 to 18	n(max)
ForecastX	6.3	6.8	7.6	8.2	8.4	10.3	10.3	9.7	11.9	13.2	7.21	7.94	8.59	8.83	9.18	9.65	862
Forecast Pro 3	6.2	6.6	7.5	8.1	8.4	10.2	10	9.6	11.5	13.1	7.12	7.84	8.44	8.68	9.02	9.49	862
SmartForecasts	7.2	7.9	8.3	8.8	9.5	11.4	10.7	11.3	12.7	14.8	8.05	8.85	9.42	9.82	10.23	10.72	862

 

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